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Attitudes to Scottish Independence and to the SNP

by Lindsay Paterson

graphic: pillar

 

The following tables were prepared for a seminar for MSPs, MPs and MEPs from the Scottish National Party, Dunblane, 22 August 2003.

The tables up-date and extend the analysis discussed in: McCrone, D. and Paterson, L. (2002), 'The conundrum of Scottish independence', Scottish Affairs, no. 40, summer, pp. 54-75,

which is also available on the Institute of Governance web site. Technical details are available in that paper.


Table 1: Support for various constitutional options, 1979-2002

 

1979

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(referendum)

1999

2002
 

%

%

%

%

%

%

independence outwith EU*

7

6

8

9

10

11

independence in EU*

17

18

28

18

18

strong domestic parliament**

26

50

42

32

50

44

weak domestic parliament**

28

9

9

9

8

no elected body

26

24

17

17

10

13

sample size

729

957

882

676

1482

1665

* No distinction was made between the two types of independence in 1979.

** Strong domestic parliament was referred to in 1979 as 'Scottish Assembly which would handle most Scottish affairs', and from 1997 onwards as 'Scottish Parliament within the UK with some taxation powers'. Weak domestic parliament was referred to in 1979 as 'Scottish Assembly which would handle some Scottish affairs and would be responsible to Parliament at Westminster', and from 1997 onwards as 'Scottish Parliament within the UK with no taxation powers'. No distinction was made in 1992.

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1979, 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.


Table 2: Support for more powers for Scottish Parliament, 1999 and 2001

 

1999

2000

increase
1999-2000
 

%

%

all

56

68

12

people who believe parliament is making no difference to

education

45

66

21

health

47

61

14

economy

48

61

13

people's say in government

43

63

20

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Sources: Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2001.


Table 3: Attitude towards independence, and support for independence, 1979 and 1999

 

1979

1999

view of independence

column %

support for independence
(% in cell)

column %

support for independence
(% in cell)

very bad

21

0

14

3

bad

33

0

31

6

good

21

16

33

45

very good

8

40

12

77

sample size

729

  

1482

  

The question in both years was 'If Scotland did become independent some time in the future, do you think that this would be a very bad thing [etc]'.

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Sources: Scottish Election Survey of 1979 and Scottish Social Attitudes Survey of 1999.


Table 4: Support for independence by class, gender and age, 1979-2002

 

1979

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(referendum)

1999

2002
(or 2001)

class*
(1979-2001)

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

professional

7

45

5

22

14

34

25

28

26

57

13

77

intermediate

8

78

19

204

22

189

25

153

20

387

19

397

routine non-manual

8

62

19

229

24

205

30

168

25

280

25

320

skilled manual

5

92

30

199

32

169

48

143

31

272

34

252

semi-skilled manual

8

155

30

185

29

141

49

108

38

228

34

280

unskilled manual

8

195

20

81

34

89

54

51

34

120

40

118

gender

men

8

350

28

445

29

376

40

291

30

667

35

736

women

6

375

18

512

24

506

34

385

24

815

25

929

age

18-24

11

55

30

118

36

85

46

41

44

95

33

114

25-34

7

155

27

183

35

170

50

123

31

305

31

250

35-44

10

132

27

172

30

153

38

141

30

259

32

348

45-54

6

119

27

162

25

148

36

116

27

247

29

289

55-64

4

93

12

137

19

125

32

94

22

209

27

256

65+

7

138

15

171

13

192

24

159

17

356

27

404

* Class measured by Registrar General scheme, 1992-2001, and by social grade in 1979. The shift to the new Socio-Economic Classification in 2002 disrupts the continuity of the series.

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1979, 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999, 2001 and 2002.


Table 5: Support for independence by education level, 1997-2002

 

1997 (election)

1997 (referendum)

1999

2002
 

% indep

N

% indep

N

% indep

N

% indep

N

Degree

17

77

30

78

23

191

24

202

Higher education diploma

29

116

40

90

22

213

30

264

Highers etc

27

149

33

83

33

180

29

245

Standard Grade etc

32

163

35

121

26

236

31

208

Below SG

17

65

47

77

31

96

37

235

None

26

296

38

217

28

542

29

485

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.


Table 6: Support for independence, by whether a member of a trade union or staff association, 2002

 

% indep.

sample size

member of trade union or staff assoc.

31

354

not a member

29

1311

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

Source:  Scottish Social Attitudes Survey of 2002.


Table 7: Support for independence by ideological group*, 1992-2002

 

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(referendum)

1999

2002
 

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

right

12

289

17

201

29

174

17

306

19

498

centre

25

252

27

247

33

233

26

401

29

677

left

30

333

33

306

48

250

33

402

46

310

* Ideological group is constructed by first summing the responses to questions relating to the left-right dimension of belief (in 2002, inequalities of wealth, inequalities of power, exploitation of workers by owners, exploitation of workers by management, and redistribution of wealth); the resulting scale is then divided into three roughly equal segments, which are then labelled left, centre and right.

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.


Table 8: Support for independence by Scottish and British identity, 1979-2002

 

1979

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(ref'dum)

1999

2002
 

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

British

2

253

11

239

10

177

17

92

11

252

7

305

Scottish

11

371

27

690

31

645

41

554

31

1136

36

1243

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

The question in 2002 was: ' Please say which, if any, of the words best describes the way you think of yourself, British, English, European, Irish, Northern Irish, Scottish, Welsh, other, none'. Questions in earlier years were similar. In each year, at least 92% selected either 'British' or 'Scottish'.

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1979, 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.


Table 9: Support for independence by party identification, 1979-2002

 

1979

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(ref'dum)

1999

2002
 

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

Con

3

222

4

116

7

144

11

123

9

231

12

220

Lab

4

274

21

164

22

415

37

336

22

625

25

665

Lib Dem

1

67

19

32

15

96

11

51

16

166

12

126

SNP

37

75

51

93

67

147

77

122

61

290

68

262

Don't know and not answered included in the base (N).

Party identification is the reply to the question 'Do you generally think of yourself as a little closer to one of the parties than the others?'.

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1979, 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.


Table 10: Party identification, among independence supporters, 1979-2002

 

1979

1992

1997
(election)

1997
(referendum)

1999

2002
 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Con

13

5

5

5

6

6

Lab

22

38

42

50

36

44

Lib Dem

2

7

7

2

8

4

SNP

62

51

47

42

50

47

sample size

50

218

227

239

395

387

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Party identification is the reply to the question 'Do you generally think of yourself as a little closer to one of the parties than the others?'.

Sources: Scottish Election Surveys of 1979, 1992 and 1997; Scottish Referendum Survey of 1997; Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys of 1999 and 2002.

Table 11: Party identification, among supporters of more powers for Scottish Parliament, 2001

Scottish Parliament should be given more powers?

agree strongly

agree

neither agree nor disagree

disagree

disagree strongly

%

%

%

%

%

Con

4

7

11

24

39

Lab

47

49

49

39

29

Lib Dem

6

11

11

13

12

SNP

29

17

5

4

2

sample size

328

769

224

199

62

Other party, don't know and not answered included in the base.

Party identification is the reply to the question 'Do you generally think of yourself as a little closer to one of the parties than the others?'.

Source: Scottish Social Attitudes Survey of 2001.


Table 12: Independence support, by strength of party attachment, 2002

strong
moderate
weak

% indep.

N

% indep.

N

% indep.

N

Con

-

-

13

64

12

141

Lab

38

49

30

251

21

365

Lib Dem

-

-

10

33

12

90

SNP

86

27

76

100

57

135

Omits cells where sample size less than 20.

source: Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2002.


 Table 13: Support for various constitutional options, 1997-2001

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

%

%

%

%

%

independence outwith EU

8

6

6

8

8

independence in EU

18

16

14

15

14

domestic parliament with tax powers

42

54

59

57

62

domestic parliament without tax powers

9

12

11

9

6

no elected body

17

10

9

10

8

sample size

882

672

617

582

566

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 14: Frequency of support for various constitutional options, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support option:

independence

domestic parliament

no parliament

%

%

%

0

51

8

72

1

21

8

16

2

11

13

5

3

7

16

3

4

6

26

1

5

5

29

2

sample size

488

488

488

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 15: Frequency of support for independence, by sex, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support independence:

men

women

%

%

0

50

50

1

20

21

2

8

12

3

7

7

4

7

5

5

8

4

sample size

203

285

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 16: Frequency of support for independence, by age*, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support independence:

aged 18-34

aged 35-54

aged 55+

%

%

%

0

41

53

56

1

21

20

23

2

16

10

8

3

10

6

5

4

6

8

3

5

7

5

5

sample size

123

185

177

* Age in 1997.

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 17: Frequency of support for independence, by social class, 1997-2001

Social class

number of waves at which support independence:

prfnl, intmdte

skilled non-man.

skilled man.

semi-, un-skilled, man.

%

%

%

%

0

65

49

47

37

1

13

23

23

27

2

8

12

7

14

3

3

6

8

9

4

2

5

11

9

5

8

5

3

5

sample size

138

124

88

118

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 18: Frequency of support for independence, by education, 1997-2001

Highest educational attainment

number of waves at which support independence:

degree

higher education diploma

Highers etc

Standard Grade etc

below SG

none

%

%

%

%

%

%

0

75

55

53

46

45

43

1

10

14

24

19

10

31

2

4

13

10

14

17

9

3

2

7

7

6

7

7

4

2

4

4

7

17

7

5

8

8

2

9

3

4

sample size

52

75

87

89

28

151

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 19: Frequency of support for independence, by ideological group, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support independence:

left

centre

right

%

%

%

0

39

48

75

1

26

24

7

2

11

7

11

3

8

10

4

4

9

7

2

5

8

5

2

sample size

188

138

117

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 20: Frequency of support for independence, by whether a member of a trade union or staff association, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support independence:

member

not a member

%

%

0

53

49

1

18

22

2

9

11

3

6

7

4

6

6

5

7

5

sample size

139

349

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.

Table 21: Support for various parties, 1997-2001

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

%

%

%

%

%

Con

16

15

16

17

15

Lab

46

48

47

45

49

Lib Dem

12

13

14

12

14

SNP

17

20

17

18

18

sample size

882

672

617

582

566

Other parties, don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 22: Frequency of support for various parties, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support party:

Con

Lab

LD

SNP

%

%

%

%

0

78

40

79

71

1

4

7

5

7

2

2

4

3

5

3

1

7

1

3

4

2

7

5

3

5

12

35

6

10

sample size

496

496

496

496

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 23: Frequency of support for SNP, by sex, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support SNP:

men

women

%

%

0

68

74

1

7

8

2

8

3

3

3

3

4

2

3

5

12

9

sample size

207

289

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 24: Frequency of support for SNP, by age*, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support SNP:

aged 18-34

aged 35-54

age 55+

%

%

%

0

62

70

79

1

10

7

5

2

10

4

3

3

6

2

2

4

3

4

2

5

10

12

9

sample size

124

191

178

* Age in 1997.

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 25: Frequency of support for SNP, by social class, 1997-2001

Social class

number of waves at which support SNP:

prfnl, intmdte

skilled non-man.

skilled man.

semi-, un-skilled, man.

%

%

%

%

0

80

69

65

66

1

4

7

12

9

2

5

7

3

6

3

4

2

5

3

4

2

3

5

3

5

7

11

10

14

sample size

142

124

89

121

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 26: Frequency of support for SNP, by education, 1997-2001

Highest educational attainment

number of waves at which support SNP:

degree

higher education diploma

Highers etc

Standard Grade etc

below SG

none

%

%

%

%

%

%

0

92

70

78

64

75

64

1

0

9

6

8

0

11

2

0

5

3

12

4

4

3

0

5

6

2

4

2

4

2

0

1

8

7

2

5

6

10

5

7

11

17

sample size

53

76

88

90

29

154

Don't know and not answered included in the base.

Source: Scottish respondents in British Election Panel Study, waves in spring 1997, spring 1998, spring 1999, spring 2000 and spring 2001.


Table 27: Frequency of support for SNP, by ideological group, 1997-2001

number of waves at which support SNP:

left

centre

right

%

%

%

0

61

72

85

1

9

5

5

2

8

4

1

3

4

5

1

4

4

3

2

5

14

10

6

sample size

189